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Post by meeshluv on Jan 4, 2009 14:35:25 GMT
That's a very complicated question, Greg - Because not only do you have the various political differences, but there's the religious differences too. However, I think we can be fairly confident that there'll never be another all-out war between Israel and the surrounding Arab nations, the same as there was in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973. And there's a very simple reason why I can say that with a fair degree of confidence - Although they've never officially admitted it, it's pretty much an "open secret" that Israel has been an undeclared nuclear power since mid-1967. That's why, in 1991, when the Scuds started dropping on Israel, the US rushed Patriot batteries there - Although they didn't say so at the time, the US spy satellites had spotted that the Israelis had begun to move their own ballistic missiles from the storage bunkers to their launch sites. And, unlike the Iraqi Scuds, the Israeli missiles DID have nuclear warheads fitted - And the Israelis later admitted that, if any Scud landing in Israel was found to have had a chemical warhead fitted, then they would have launched their own missiles at Baghdad! So that's why we probably won't see another full-blown war there, just the current cycle of terror and counter-terror. And as we know from past events in Northern Ireland, that can be very hard to stop... That is a very fair and well rounded response. But say, moving on around 20 or so years, when the oil reserves are running dry and economies are suffering, do you think that there will be a World War 3 for these reasons, and if so, do you think that the majority of the fighting will be concentrated in the Middle East? I think that will all depend upon who's invested what in the various different forms of alternative energies... By then, I think the fuel cell will be in widespread use for cars, along with some other very interesting technologies like compressed air (there's a firm in France working on using that for town cars, and it looks quite promising - they can get a 300 mile range from a single tank of air...). So, rather than looking at who controls the production of oil, we'll have to look at who controls the production of hydrogen. And, because all you need to do that is water and electricity, it will be difficult for any one nation (or group of nations, such as OPEC) to have the same sort of stranglehold on the production of hydrogen as we have now with the production of oil. Different nations may use different sources of power to produce the electricity - some may use solar power, others hydro-electric, and some nuclear - but as long as they have access to water, then they can make at least some of their own fuel. I think this equality of production will turn out to be a great political leveller, and reduce the need for nations to go to war over resources. Of course, that's not going to stop wars caused by other factors, such as religion or differences in political systems, but it will weaken the strong positions occupied by some nations who just happen to be in the right place to benefit from our current need for fossil fuels. And, of course, this shift from the need for oil to the use of alternative energies will definitely shift attention away from the oil-rich nations of the Middle East - But where it moves too, who can say?
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Post by G-Man on Jan 8, 2009 0:11:54 GMT
Personally, I think China and Japan will control the production and power of hydrogen cars. Japan has the cutting edge technology and car manufacturing industry whilst China has the population and finances to back up a move into that area, not to mention the terrible pollution in many Chinese cities. I think the 21st Century will be the year of China, after all, it has America in its pocket, a hugely powerful army, and an iron fist over its inhabitants.
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Post by meeshluv on Jan 8, 2009 16:49:46 GMT
I'm not sure they will dominate in the way you think - As I pointed out, any nation with access to water and power can make hydrogen, so it will be very difficult for any individual nation to gain a monopoly there - Even I could make hydrogen here at home, just using a few bits and pieces from the kitchen, garage and garden shed...
As for the production of the fuel cells, again, as long as a nation has access to the raw materials needed, then anyone can make them. And given that fuel cell vehicles are mechanically much simpler than petrol-engined vehicles, I think we could see a rise in the number of small manufacturers, each catering to specific niche markets in their local areas.
And as for China dominating the manufacture of the cars etc, I can see a big problem there. Sure, they could build millions of cars for the rest of the world - But, without fossil fuels to power the huge ships needed to transport those cars around the world, how are they going to get them to the end users? Don't forget that cars aren't the only users of oil - at least 90% of all ships also need oil to drive them along. So what are they going to do when the oil runs out? Unlike road vehicles, they can't use fuel cells, because they're not powerful enough to drive something that massive, so what are the alternatives? We may see some of them modified to coal-powered form, and maybe someone will even build a few nuclear-powered bulk container ships. But I think we'll probably see an end to the huge fleets of bulk carriers and container ships we now have sailing all around the world. And without all of those ships to take goods to foreign markets, how are we going to get the things we need? The only practical solution is to replace huge centralised factories which ship goods globally with smaller regional facilities which can ship goods locally by road or rail. And the end result of that situation for somewhere like China? While they may end up dominating the manufacturing of many products for the Far East and South-East Asia, they'll probably lose much of their global market because of the problems of widespread distribution.
Remember, you don't just have to think about the manufacturing ability of a nation - You also have to take into account their access to global distribution, both now and in the future. And global travel and distribution are going to be HUGELY changed in the future without access to cheap oil...
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Post by G-Man on Jan 9, 2009 18:47:31 GMT
I'm not sure they will dominate in the way you think - As I pointed out, any nation with access to water and power can make hydrogen, so it will be very difficult for any individual nation to gain a monopoly there - Even I could make hydrogen here at home, just using a few bits and pieces from the kitchen, garage and garden shed... As for the production of the fuel cells, again, as long as a nation has access to the raw materials needed, then anyone can make them. And given that fuel cell vehicles are mechanically much simpler than petrol-engined vehicles, I think we could see a rise in the number of small manufacturers, each catering to specific niche markets in their local areas. And as for China dominating the manufacture of the cars etc, I can see a big problem there. Sure, they could build millions of cars for the rest of the world - But, without fossil fuels to power the huge ships needed to transport those cars around the world, how are they going to get them to the end users? Don't forget that cars aren't the only users of oil - at least 90% of all ships also need oil to drive them along. So what are they going to do when the oil runs out? Unlike road vehicles, they can't use fuel cells, because they're not powerful enough to drive something that massive, so what are the alternatives? We may see some of them modified to coal-powered form, and maybe someone will even build a few nuclear-powered bulk container ships. But I think we'll probably see an end to the huge fleets of bulk carriers and container ships we now have sailing all around the world. And without all of those ships to take goods to foreign markets, how are we going to get the things we need? The only practical solution is to replace huge centralised factories which ship goods globally with smaller regional facilities which can ship goods locally by road or rail. And the end result of that situation for somewhere like China? While they may end up dominating the manufacturing of many products for the Far East and South-East Asia, they'll probably lose much of their global market because of the problems of widespread distribution. Remember, you don't just have to think about the manufacturing ability of a nation - You also have to take into account their access to global distribution, both now and in the future. And global travel and distribution are going to be HUGELY changed in the future without access to cheap oil... Talking of the manufacturing industry, the UK doesn't have one. Luckily the economic slump may give rise to a resurgence of manufacturing. With many out of jobs, shops closing down and banks closing their doors this country really needs some stimulus and investment on our own shores, not of foreign nations and their banking systems. Maybe by going back to our successful car industries we can kick-start a new path for our flagging country. I completely agree with your comments of distribution, however, I still think China will be the leading superpower by the end of the 21st century, and Japan's experience in the car industry may mean that many companies will build more factories abroad. I suppose time will tell... if we haven't had nuclear Armageddon by then .
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Post by meeshluv on Jan 10, 2009 16:34:41 GMT
I suppose time will tell... if we haven't had nuclear Armageddon by then . Here's a song for the times... Eve of Destruction - Barry McGuire(written by P.F. Sloan)The eastern world, it is exploding Violence flarin’, bullets loadin’ You’re old enough to kill, but not for votin’ You don’t believe in war, but what’s that gun you’re totin’ And even the Jordan River has bodies floatin’
But you tell me Over and over and over again, my friend Ah, you don’t believe We’re on the eve of destruction.
Don’t you understand what I’m tryin’ to say Can’t you feel the fears I’m feelin’ today? If the button is pushed, there’s no runnin’ away There’ll be no one to save, with the world in a grave [Take a look around ya boy, it's bound to scare ya boy]
And you tell me Over and over and over again, my friend Ah, you don’t believe We’re on the eve of destruction.
Yeah, my blood’s so mad feels like coagulatin’ I’m sitting here just contemplatin’ I can’t twist the truth, it knows no regulation. Handful of senators don’t pass legislation And marches alone can’t bring integration When human respect is disintegratin’ This whole crazy world is just too frustratin’
And you tell me Over and over and over again, my friend Ah, you don’t believe We’re on the eve of destruction.
Think of all the hate there is in Red China Then take a look around to Selma, Alabama You may leave here for 4 days in space But when you return, it’s the same old place The poundin’ of the drums, the pride and disgrace You can bury your dead, but don’t leave a trace Hate your next-door neighbor, but don’t forget to say grace And… tell me over and over and over and over again, my friend You don’t believe We’re on the eve Of destruction Mm, no no, you don’t believe We’re on the eve of destruction.From 1965, but just as true today as it was back then....
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Post by G-Man on Jan 11, 2009 21:15:21 GMT
I suppose time will tell... if we haven't had nuclear Armageddon by then . From 1965, but just as true today as it was back then.... Eerie, isn't it?
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Post by G-Man on Feb 9, 2009 0:26:54 GMT
Random thought:
Mischa has more followers on Twitter than Rachel Bilson.
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Post by jjthejetplane945 on Feb 10, 2009 22:01:00 GMT
heyy just gotta say i got over a case of strep and horrible headaches
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Post by meeshhead on Feb 10, 2009 23:19:47 GMT
heyy just gotta say i got over a case of strep and horrible headaches Strep is some serious shit! That's one of the very few things that I'd take prescription meds for.
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Post by jjthejetplane945 on Feb 11, 2009 1:40:16 GMT
yeah!! and now im stuck doing make up work for school it sucks!!
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Post by meeshluv on Mar 28, 2009 15:09:50 GMT
Random thought: Mischa has more followers on Twitter than Rachel Bilson. Except, as we now know, that wasn't the REAL Mischa!!! Last night, I played a blank tape all the way through at full volume - The mime artist next door went nuts!!!
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Post by meeshhead on Mar 28, 2009 15:34:51 GMT
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Post by Mischa is my life! on Mar 29, 2009 10:58:51 GMT
LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! Oh, Adrian!! *blows u a kiss*
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Post by meeshhead on Mar 30, 2009 6:03:31 GMT
"There are 3 types of people in this world: Those who can count. And those who can't."
(credit Loney from The O.C. Forum)
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